The 63% Glitch: What the Widest Seller-to-Buyer Gap Since 2013 Actually Means for You

by Derek Colen

If you have been browsing your Redfin feed over the past few weeks, you have probably noticed a subtle shift in the market rhythm.

Homes are staying on the market longer. Price drops are increasingly common. The frenzy of fifteen offers over asking price on a Tuesday afternoon has cooled down.

That is not just local anecdotal chatter. The underlying data confirms it: active home sellers outnumbered active buyers by nearly 63% nationally, marking the widest gap recorded in Redfin’s data dating back to 2013.

For anyone considering a move heading into the winter months or early 2027, this shift changes the playbook. Here is what is happening beneath the surface, why the sticker price is misleading, and how smart buyers and sellers are navigating today's landscape.

1. The Numbers Behind the Gap

The widening divide between sellers and buyers is not caused by a flood of distressed property listings. Instead, it is being driven by a pullback in active buyers:

Buyer Activity: An estimated 928,000 active buyers were shopping nationally heading into the fall—one of the lowest buyer counts on record.
Seller Inventory: Active listings hovered near 1.51 million homes, the highest supply level seen since early 2020.
Market Balance: Over 80% of major U.S. metro areas are now classified as buyer’s markets, characterized by inventory staying active on the market rather than getting absorbed immediately.

When sellers outnumber buyers by 63%, power dynamics flip. Buyers gain room to negotiate inspection items, request structural credits, and take time to evaluate a property before submitting an offer.

2. Don’t Obsess Over the List Price—Look at the Monthly Payment

Despite the buyer surplus, home prices have not plummeted. Nationally, median sale prices have held steady, inching up roughly 0.2% to 1.3% year-over-year.

Why are prices holding while demand cools? Because homeowners with sub-4% mortgage rates from previous years are not under distress to give away their properties at steep discounts.

Instead of expecting 20% drops on the list price, the real opportunity lies in financing concessions. With 30-year fixed rates hovering in the low-7% range, monthly payments remain the primary hurdle for prospective homeowners.

The Strategy: Temporary 2-1 Rate Buydowns

Rather than fighting for a $20,000 price reduction—which only shaves about $130 off a monthly payment at today's rates—savvy buyers are asking sellers to fund a 2-1 temporary interest rate buydown:

Year 1: Your effective interest rate drops by 2% (e.g., from ~7.25% down to 5.25%).
Year 2: Your interest rate drops by 1% (e.g., 6.25%).
Year 3 onwards: The loan adjusts to the full note rate (or you refinance if market rates drop).

Because sellers are eager to move properties before year-end, many are willing to contribute closing credits toward buydowns. This cuts a buyer’s monthly outlay by hundreds of dollars without requiring the seller to drastically slash their headline listing price.

3. Why November & December Are Peak Deal-Making Months

Real estate seasonality follows a predictable trajectory. Early autumn is typically when initial price adjustments take place, but late November and December are when motivated market participants transact.

For Buyers:

Less Competition: Casual shoppers pause their home searches to focus on the holidays, clearing out competing bids.
Motivated Counterparts: Homeowners keeping their properties active through Thanksgiving, December, and New Year’s are serious about closing. They are far more receptive to seller-paid closing costs, flexible move-in dates, and thorough home inspection contingencies.

For Sellers:

High-Intent Foot Traffic: Holiday foot traffic may be lighter, but the buyers touring your home in November and December are pre-approved, focused, and ready to make a decision before the calendar year closes.
Pricing Precision: Homes priced accurately out of the gate still sell quickly. Homes priced on trailing peak-market comps tend to sit, eventually requiring concessions later on. Meeting the market on day one protects your equity and keeps you from chasing downward price adjustments into January.

What Is Your Next Step?

Whether you are looking to take advantage of seller concessions on a home you have favorited on Redfin, or you want a realistic assessment of your home’s equity ahead of the spring market, having neighborhood-specific data is critical.

Feel free to reach out directly to run payment scenarios, explore seller credits, or analyze recent neighborhood comps.

Derek Colen

Redfin Lead Agent

📞 202.680.3457